Archive | Graphiti

The Mitt-ens Come Off

You may have seen a news item in today’s New York Times (posted yesterday as part of “The Caucus” blog on the Times’ site), which noted that negative ads accounted for over 90% of the political advertising Floridians saw during the last week. Figures are courtesy of Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group.

Anti-Gingrich 68%
Anti-Romney 23%
Pro-Gingrich 9%
Pro-Romney 0.1%

Or, put another way:




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Graphiti: Social Media and the Iowa Caucus

The team at Oh My Gov made these predictions the day of the Iowa caucuses:

If Iowa Republican caucus-goers follow the trend shown in Facebook fans, then Romney will be the clear winner with Paul having a strong second place showing. Gingrich and Santorum will battle for third. This is consistent with recent Iowa polling data from Real Clear Politics.

Interestingly, a look at Twitter follower growth predicts Paul emerging as the winner, followed by Romney and Santorum.

Now, the day after the caucus and the Santorum Surge, they have a follow-up post:
Romney’s campaign made a targeted effort to attack Newt Gingrich in the final days leading up to the caucus, but had they taken a closer look at the former speaker’s social media following they might have realized that their attention was misplaced and resources could have been better used to target Santorum.

Today’s post also has a graph of the entire field’s social media trends and it matches the public opinion data quite well, suggesting that both Paul and Santorum have momentum going into New Hampshire.

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Graphiti: Income Inequality Edition

Over at his blog, Mike Sances investigates the claim that the Occupy Wall Street protests have made concerns about economic inequality an important item on the political agenda. A recent Washington Post poll found that about 60% of respondents believed there was a widening gap between the wealthy and the less well-off and that the government “should pursue policies that try to reduce the gap.”  Sances notes that this 60% figure is a historical high.  Drawing on data from the General Social Survey since the late 1970s, he writes:

Note that the “reduce income differences” category has always had a plurality, though never a majority. Could differences in the way the question is worded account for the apparent 20% jump between the GSS in 2010 and the Washington Post result in 2011?

In a 2008 article in Perspectives on Politics, Lane Kenworthy and Leslie McCall also addressed this topic.  Using the similar data from the GSS they found that:
Americans do tend to object to inequality and increasingly believe government should act to redress it, but not via traditional redistributive programs. We examine several alternative possibilities and provide a broad analytical framework for reinterpreting social policy preferences in the era of rising inequality. Our evidence suggests that Americans may be unsure or uninformed about how to address rising inequality and thus swayed by contemporaneous debates.

The question is whether Occupy Wall Street is one of those contemporaneous debates. Will it have a real lasting impact on the salience of income inequality and on government policy?

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Graphiti: Obama Isn’t Truman

From Brendan Nyhan’s post.  The upshot: don’t claim that Truman’s campaign against a “do-nothing Congress” was the reason for his 1948 victory.  The economy was clearly important.  And don’t think that such a strategy will help Obama in 2012, given the very different economy that he faces.

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In honor of the 10th anniversary of 9/11, Wired Magazine visualizes the uncertainty around the true number of Iraqi casualties since the US military engagement began in 2003. While the US military has accurate, continuously updated numbers on casualties amongst its servicemen and women, there is considerable disagreement about the level of Iraqi casualties.  Wired has provided all the data and their sources for these and related graphs for its readers.

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Source: Paul Peterson, William Howell and Martin West in Education Next.

The dislike of pie charts is prevalent enough to have its own entry on Wikipedia.  Nevertheless, this graph is still interesting. It shows the views of three subgroups of respondents: the whole (national) sample, the affluent (defined as college graduates who are in the top income decile in their state), and teachers.  Each group assessed the state of their local schools and the nation’s schools via a letter grade. Their assessments mirror the research findings on assessment of members of Congress versus Congress as an institution, known as “Fenno’s paradox.” Just as people consistently disprove of Congress but not of their own elected representative, respondents think the nation’s schools are much worse than their own local schools.

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YSPR O'Reilly Stewart CCES

Hi everyone, as John Sides has already written, my name is Jonathan Robinson, and I’m an undergraduate in political science here at GW. I will be writing up a couple of regular posts here at The Monkey Cage. I hope you enjoy them.

Source: Matthew Dickensons blog, You Study Politics, Right? Data: Cooperative Congressional Election Study. The graph aggregates respondents by age (the thickness of the data points) and party identification (the color, ranging from red to blue).

A few observations.  There is the obvious negative correlation: viewers who like Jon Stewart tend not to like Bill O’Reilly.  Not surprising, of course.   More interesting: there are lots of people who love Stewart, giving him really high ratings, but fewer who love O’Reilly.  Among O’Reilly’s rabid supporters, more have middle-of-the-road feelings toward Stewart than very unfavorable feelings.  Age seems to have little to do with feelings toward either pundit.

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