This new California law could dramatically change the demographics of its electorate

Voters cast their ballots at a polling site in the presidential primary in Indianapolis on May 3. (Steve C. Mitchell/EPA) California recently passed the New… Read More

Revisiting the bias in the midterm polls

Iowa’s senator-elect Joni Ernst, who surprised many with her margin of victory. (The Washington Post) I recently wrote a piece that argued there… Read More

The 2014 polls were still really good at predicting winners

Despite certain kinds of bias, poll averages are still doing a good job predicting winners. (The Washington Post) Before the election, I suggested… Read More

What if election polls are biased against winners?

Iowa’s senator-elect Joni Ernst, one of apparently many underestimated winners. (The Washington Post) It seems like every election, some observers suggest that the polls… Read More

Why the polls are better than ever at predicting Senate races

The growing volume of Senate polls has made predictions more accurate.  (Washington Post) There has been a lot of concern about the quality of… Read More

Is the Election Lab forecast too confident in a GOP Senate majority?

With about two weeks to go until Election Day, a number of the forecasters have been investigating the potential accuracy of polling averages. See the… Read More

Are the Democrats still at a disadvantage in redistricting?

To what extent are Democrats inherently disadvantaged in congressional elections because of where they live?  This was a hot topic of conversation just after… Read More

Gerrymandering still isn’t a very big deal

Noam Scheiber has a recent piece about the Republican party that makes two points.  The first is that Republicans in Congress—especially the House of… Read More

Details on the 2012 House predictions

We created and refined a prediction model for House elections and recently evaluated the model’s performance against the actual results.  In the… Read More

The history of the House votes-seats discrepancy, in two graphs

My recent claim that the gap between Democratic vote share and seat share this election was not caused by redistricting has generated a lot… Read More