Many observers now expect a “blue wave” and a “pink wave”’ to wash over the 2018 U.S. elections. Some analysts are also predicting a possible “rainbow wave” of victorious candidates who identify as LGBTQ. While a rainbow wave may reach further up the beach than ever before, it will hardly be an LGBTQ tsunami. And, while the number of visibly LGBTQ candidates is rising, antigay and antitrans attitudes, while diminishing, still make it harder for such candidates to win.
1. Will there be a rainbow Congress?
In November, there are 21 candidates who identify as LGBTQ running for Congress. This could translate into a small increase in the number of out U.S. House and Senate members. There currently are seven: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.); and Reps. David N. Cicilline (D-R.I.), Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), Mark Pocan (D.-Wis.), Jared Polis (D-Colo.), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Mark Takano (D-Calif.). Of non-incumbents running, the most likely to win election are all Democrats: Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, Katie Hill in California, Sharice Davids in Kansas and Angie Craig in Minnesota. Two others, also both Democrats, Gina Ortiz Jones in Texas and Lauren Baer in Florida look less likely to win.
Gerry Studds (D-Mass.) was the first out LGBTQ member of Congress in 1983. There were never more than three out members from 1996 to 2012. In that year, eight served openly — but for the next six years, that high point dipped to seven.
If all five LGBT incumbents now seeking reelection and all five LGBTQ candidates are victorious, the congressional LGBTQ caucus would go to 10 — and Kansas, Minnesota and New Hampshire would have their first LGBTQ representatives in Congress.
In Arizona, Sinema has a slight edge in her race to join Baldwin in the U.S. Senate. Three of four likely new LGBTQ members of Congress are women; that could shift the gender balance of the caucus to 50-50. American women as a whole are more likely (5.1 percent) to identify as LGBTQ than are men (3.9 percent).
[interstitial_link url=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/05/30/will-2018s-pink-wave-of-female-candidates-make-it-in-congress-almost-certainly-heres-how/”]Will 2018’s ‘pink wave’ of female candidates make a difference in Congress? Almost certainly. Here’s how.[/interstitial_link]
2. Will state legislatures be painted rainbow?
Perhaps the more crucial battlefields for gay and trans rights in America today are state legislatures: 119 state lawmakers identify as LGBTQ, making up 1.6 percent of the nearly 7,400 such lawmakers in office. Of the 250 candidates identifying as LGBTQ who ran in the primaries, 81 percent qualified for the general election ballot. Eighty of those were incumbent lawmakers, including five Republicans, running for reelection. While the 203 openly LGBTQ state legislature candidates are the largest group in history, we are unlikely to see much of a state-level rainbow wave.
We believe that most, if not all, of the 80 incumbent LGBTQ members will hold on to their seats. But 21 other incumbent LGBTQ lawmakers are leaving their seats — either because they have resigned, retired, hit their term limits or are seeking higher office. Of the new candidates, 18 are virtually guaranteed victory in the November general elections, either because they are running unopposed or the district is overwhelmingly blue. Another 12 candidates might win. Our prediction is the number of elected openly LGBTQ state lawmakers who take the oath of office in 2019 will be somewhere between 117 and 130. In other words, we expect a tiny increase in the coming legislative session.
[interstitial_link url=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/18/could-anything-even-taylor-swift-boost-the-youth-vote-in-2018″]Could anything — even Taylor Swift — boost the youth vote in 2018?[/interstitial_link]
3. Who exactly represents the rainbow community in office?
Breaking it down by LGB and T
Of the U.S. LGB population, 52 percent identify as bisexual, 17 percent as lesbian and 31 percent as gay men. Women are almost twice as likely as men to identify as bisexual. Less than 1 percent of Americans identify as transgender (which is roughly 8 percent of the LGBTQ population). But of the 203 openly LGBTQ candidates running for state legislative seats, 101 candidates — or 52 percent — identify as gay men; 83, or 43 percent, as lesbians; and nine, or 5 percent, as bisexual. Ten candidates identify as trans (eight trans women and two trans men). Self-identifying bisexuals remain the most sparsely represented.
By gender
While lesbian and bisexual women are likely to make small gains in Congress, that is less likely at the statehouse level. In 2018, 51 (45 percent) of LGBTQ statehouse members were women. That may hold steady or decline. Half of the members leaving office are women; seven of the 18 highly likely new State House members are. Two women with paths to victory in New Hampshire are Lisa Bunker and Gerri Cannon, both of whom identify as trans women. Only one other out trans woman, Danica Roem in Virginia, has been elected to a U.S. state legislature.
[interstitial_link url=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/10/17/in-the-2018-midterms-many-more-people-are-running-and-far-more-seats-are-contested-than-weve-seen-for-a-generation/”]In the 2018 midterms, many more people are running — and far more seats are contested — than we’ve seen for a generation.[/interstitial_link]
By race/ethnicity
Nearly 40 percent of LGBTQ Americans are nonwhite — but the LGBTQ caucus in Congress has only one minority member, in Takano of California. He may be joined by Davids, a Native American from the Ho-Chunk nation, representing Kansas.
As of 2018, whites constitute 85 percent of LGBTQ state legislature members. Six new Latino and two black LGBTQ state lawmakers are likely to be elected in November — but four Latino and three black incumbents are leaving office.
For context, 24 percent of all state legislators are women, who make up 51 percent of the U.S. population; 9 percent are African American, who make up 13 percent of the U.S.; 5 percent are Latino, who make up 17 percent of the population; and one percent are Asian/Pacific Islander, who make up 5 percent of the population.
4. So is the LGBTQ community accurately represented in U.S. politics?
A growing percentage of Americans self-identify as LGBTQ, reaching 4.5 percent in the latest Gallup 2017 tracking poll. By contrast, in 2019, we are likely to see 2 percent of the House of the Representatives identify as LGBTQ; 1 to 2 percent of the Senate; and 1.5 percent of state legislatures.
If the proportion of elected officials reflected the U.S. population, there would be 24 LGBTQ members of Congress and 322 in state legislatures.
Why the gap? In part, it is because LGBTQ equality remains a partisan issue. Only a small number of out LGBTQ candidates are Republicans. In the rest of the democratic world, right-of-center LGBTQ politicians are being returned to office more often than left-of-center ones. LGBTQ rights in Europe, Australasia and South America are losing their divisive partisan charge, but not in the United States.
When it comes to LGBTQ representation in America, the sea levels are rising, but slowly.
Charles W. Gossett is professor emeritus of political science at California State University, Sacramento.
Andrew Reynolds is a professor of political science at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and author of “The Children of Harvey Milk: How LGBTQ Politicians Changed the World” (Oxford University Press, 2018).
The authors thank Christian Correa for his research assistance. Full data available from authors.