Campaigns and elections

Very Quick Observations on Election Night 2012

Joshua Tucker Nov 7 '12
  • As John noted, a very good night for the quants in the quants vs. pundits contest
  • To the extent that Obama if anything over-performed relative to the polls (and this still needs to be measured), will this turn out to be the last hurrah for land-line only phone polls?
  • By my count, the Republican party has now lost at least 2 (Delaware ’10, Indiana ’12) and perhaps as many as 4 (Nevada ’10, Missouri ’12) Senate seats as a fairly direct result of nominating the “less moderate” candidate in the last two elections.  In a Senate that looks like it might have 53 or 54 Democratic Senators, this is a big deal.  So while the press will likely have a field day with the “coming Republican civil war” story, these Senate seats are consequential.
  • Watching US election results come in from Europe guarantees a much, much longer night!