Winnowing the Field Would Help Romney, Not Hurt Him

Jan 17 '12

There’s this meme that if there were only one conservative candidate, it would work to Romney’s disadvantage.  So if there was only, say, Gingrich or Santorum opposing Romney, he’d be in more trouble.

The opposite seems to be true.  In head-to-head match-ups with Gingrich or Santorum, Romney cleans up.  This is because the second-choice candidate of many supporters of Gringrich or Santorum is actually…Romney.

Lynn Vavreck and I run the numbers here.  Our conclusion:

bq. As the field narrows, a Romney nomination becomes more inevitable, not less.