Campaigns and elections

Shooting a rabbit with a cannon

Andrew Gelman Sep 1 '11

There’s some dude who goes around with a method for deterministically forecasting presidential elections. It’s all pretty silly given that he gives his model credit for predicting the winner of every presidential election, including tossups such as 1960, 1968, and 2000 which it’s pretty meaningless to imagine you could predict more than a day or so ahead of time.

This stuff must have hit the newspapers again recently, because Nate went to the trouble of demolishing it. This has got to be one of the less fun parts of Nate’s job–to spend your time shooting down misconceptions that never should’ve been taken seriously in the first place.