Dubious prognoses

May 2 '11

Via “Paul Krugman”:, a “paper”:, finding that most pundits do no better at making predictions than a flipped coin. Remarkably, the piece fails to cite the “ground-shattering analysis”: which arguably launched the field of quantitative pundit studies, Lee Sigelman et al.’s “statistical analysis of the predictive powers of the McLaughlin group”: Sigelman and colleagues find that McLaughlin predictions were only right 50.1% of the time – it would seem that there has not been much improvement in the meantime (to the extent that the recent paper’s findings are reliable – I wouldn’t be staking me life on them myself).