Campaigns and elections

Counting Delegates Under the Other Party’s Rules

Feb 14 '08

Michael Franz sent us some fun data. He first calculated the Democratic delegate counts using Republican winner-take-all rules as opposed to proportional rules, and then calculated the Republican delegate counts using a proportional formula. Because calculating the number of delegates is difficult (e.g., see here), Michael cautions that one shouldn’t take these as the absolute gospel. More important is just the direction of change under alternative rules. Here is the comparison for the Democratic candidates:

demdelegates.PNG

As you can see, winner-take-all rules make a closely contested race even more so.

Here are the Republican results, with an additional caveat from Michael that his proportional formula is simply a back-of-the-envelope calculation based on each candidate’s percent of the vote in a state’s caucus or primary:

repdelegates.PNG

A seeming McCain victory becomes more uncertain, as Romney gains a considerable number of delegates.