From Gallup:
As we’ve noted on the blog many, many times, the most important predictor of presidential election outcomes is the trend in key economic indicators in the year before the election. Although Americans hardly see the economy as healthy, the trend from September into now is the best news Barack Obama could hope for. Now he just needs to hope it continues.
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Honest question: If this index appears to have “bottomed out” in 08/11, and Obama’s economic policies took effect very early into his presidency, with some ARRA components beginning in 03/09, and political economists argue for a roughly 18-month lag on economic policy effects, can we call this evidence that Obama’s policies are “visibly working?”
Yes – but no one will listen to you.