The debates have knocked his lead over Romney from 12 points to 5 points:
The graph is from political scientist Charles Franklin at PollsandVotes. As Brendan Nyhan tweeted:
Perry’s struggles should remind us of the skill required to be a top-tier national politician. Wesley Clark is feeling his pain right now.Indeed.
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Post hoc propter hoc. The debates may have been the cause of the decline, but Perry could also have been enjoying early popularity simply by virtue of being a new face in the contest, and all we are seeing is a return to natural levels. And btw, what’s the margin of error on the purported decline?
It’d be nice to see error bars. I’m not sure this trend passes the sniff test.