About 10 days ago, Kevin Drum put up this chart, saying:
Via YouGov, here is all of modern American politics explained in a single handy chart. Enjoy.
In a July 15-17 poll, Gallup found that the majority of Americans of every partisan stripe, including 57% of Republicans, want a debt ceiling compromise:
Of course, were these two questions asked in the same poll, there would be a lot of overlap in response. People who don’t want compromise in theory would be more likely to opposite it in fact. But the inconsistencies in response would still be noteworthy.
A good rule-of-thumb when looking at public opinion data is never to assume that people consistently reason from general principles. They say they are pro-choice, but they oppose abortion in some circumstances. They say that they oppose government spending, except that they like many government programs. So it’s not surprising that, weeks into the debt ceiling stalemate, most Republicans within the public are willing to make a deal.
But the same rule-of-thumb applies to the Gallup poll as well: just because 57% of Republicans say they want a compromise, don’t assume they will approve of whatever compromise passes.
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Very sound advice. Reminds me of Howard Schuman’s advice to never trust marginals in any absolute sense, as question wording and context matter to respondents.
Curious about the two types of questions used above and whether such items have been asked recently — in some form — in the same poll. The best I could find in a very quick tour of iPoll is a Pew News Interest poll from January 2007. There looks to be some useful items here for those inclined to pursue John’s line of argument. Below are some of the relevant items from this poll, but a fuller search of iPoll (or direct queries to public pollsters who have more sophisticated ways to search their own databases) may yield better material.
Pew has a list item with variations of the general attribute question, using the stem, “(As I read some characteristics associated with political leaders in Washington, please tell me how much you like or dislike each. We’ll use a scale from 4 to 1 where ’4′ represents something you like a lot and ’1′ represents something you dislike a lot.) On this scale, how would you rate political leaders who…?” On “willing to compromise” — as expected — there’s a 10-point difference in “like a lot” between Dems (54 percent) and Reps (44 percent), with independents in-between at 50 percent. On “stick to their positions, even if unpopular” it’s a 12-point Rep advantage, 52 v. 40 percent, with independents at 44 percent.
For the specific policy item, they ask something a bit different and it might not work quite as cleanly as the debt/deficit question above. For Reps who said the Republican Party can do a better job handling the most important problem facing the country, it reads: “Should Republican political leaders be willing to compromise with the Democrats on this issue (you named as the most important problem facing the country), or should they stick to their position without compromising?” — and Dems who said their party was best handle the MIP get the same about their party’s leaders. Reps break 63 to 30 percent, compromise v. stick to positions; Dems go 59-35 percent.
Stick to your guns Republicans, no deals even if we’re forced to default, even while your investments tank and your businesses suffer. What’s more important? Money or your principles?
I also wonder how time-bound these findings are. I haven’t looked up the data, but I would guesstimate that partisan attitudes toward compromise might be, in part, a function of whether or not their party is in a stronger negotiating position to enact their preferred policy agenda.