I have updated the graph from my earlier post to include forecasts from 538 (specifically, they estimate that the Democrats will retain 210 seats) and Stochastic Democracy (specifically, the histogram here, which states that the GOP should win on average 226 seats).
Those forecasts that rely on polling data—e.g., the generic ballot—could change in the months ahead if the polls change. However, I am not going to be updating this graph. I want to put the models that rely on such data on equal footing with those that do not. We can thus think of all of these forecasts as made at roughly the same time.
I want to emphasize something that Andy said in his post. All of these forecasts have considerable uncertainty, so the forecasts that have the Democrats losing 40-50 seats are essentially the same forecast.
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John
This a great graph. Any chance you could add the confidence intervals on the predictions? I’m curious to see how many cross at 218.
Rob: Not all of these forecasters report confidence intervals, so I haven’t included them in the graph. I agree that they would be instructive.
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