One of my graduate students, Andrew Therriault, has a very interesting blog post up today about a recent Pew survey on public opinion towards the Bush tax cuts. First, the numbers in answer to the question Which comes closer to your view about the tax cuts passed when George W. Bush was president?
30% All of the tax cuts should remain in place.
27% Tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed, while others stay in place.
31% All of the tax cuts should be repealed.
Andrew’s take on this:
This is pretty amazing. We could argue to no end about the reasonableness of (effectively) raising taxes during a recession, but that’s not the point. Nor are the exact numbers themselves gospel–I imagine more than a few respondents are reacting to the “Bush” part of “Bush tax cuts”, and the option of sticking it to the unspecified “wealthy” does summon the populist rage in a bipartisan fashion. What’s really important here is that, while Democratic lawmakers are clamoring to get on the tax cut bandwagon (or off of the tax increase bandwagon, if you’re thinking about attack ads), Americans appear willing to have a reasonable conversation about taxes, that is, one in which raising taxes is at least on the table.
His caveats:
In reality, the outcome is always somewhat muddled–voters vary widely in the amount and quality of information they hold about policy, and act accordingly. But given the pocketbook appeal of tax cuts and the public’s general disdain for government spending (waste and inefficiency aside, most everyone’s tax dollars at least partially fund things they oppose), along with the pundrity’s dire warnings against raising taxes in a recession, it’s remarkable that a clear majority of voters are open to raising at least some taxes. And moreover, many are willing to pay more out of their own pockets. I’d have to see more data to see what this means:
Is it the budget deficit worrying voters?
Do they want better services (healthcare, Social Security, education, or others) and are tired of hearing that there’s no money for them?
Are they simply reacting against the Bush-era economic policies in general, in light of their results? (The same poll shows that only 29% think Bush’s economic policies would be better right now than Obama’s.)
So to throw out to readers of the Monkey Cage: are we witnessing something new in American public opinion?
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As an aside on the subject of social media, I became aware of Andrew’s post because he posted it to his Facebook page. So if you are an aspiring blogger, don’t be afraid to get out there and promote what you are writing. As the number of political scientists on Facebook in particular grows (and I’m guessing Twitter as well, although I’m less active there), this is becoming an increasingly valuable way to share information about research and opinions. With that in mind, has anyone thought about a Twitter search tool for new blog posts in political science? or new papers? How about #psblogpost and #psnewpaper?
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Apropos your last point Joshua, I started a FB group for political scientists. It would, in some sense, be an ideal way to trade information (there are also groups devoted to ELECDEM and Political Communication). However, its always been fairly dormant; more of a way for people to self-identify than trade information. I wonder if there is a way to use FB as a blog aggregator in the manner you suggest.
No, there is nothing new here. People are sensible, much more so than most politicians.
Another interpretation is that people get confused when you ask them whether they “support the repeal of a tax cut.” It is something of a double negative. i.e. are you “for” the “removal” of a “change” that you “like or don’t like” That’s sort of a mental challenge for a low-incentivized survey respondent. If people are confused, this may lead to the 1/3,1/3, 1/3 outcome observed in the data.
Did anyone of you read the release from Pew? They’ve been asking that same question for nearly 6 years. I think 10 polls is enough to draw some conclusions about this. These results are entirely predictable. People really do have these opinions and the political elites’ conventional wisdom is stupidly wrong.
Of course, there is an alternative explanation. I don’t think so, but maybe John Griffin is right, the results don’t stray too far from 1/3 split.
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