A series of focus groups in five states conducted last month for the conservative nonprofit group Resurgent Republic found that while independent voters have soured on Obama, they haven’t abandoned him completely. The same can’t be said of their feelings for congressional Democrats.
In analyzing one such group in Orlando, GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen concluded that it was two issues, health care and BP’s oil spill, that ultimately soured these independent voters on Obama. On health care, van Lohuizen blames the process of the debate more than the substance for turning off independents. As for BP, voters are disappointed that they “don’t see strong leadership” from the president.
Ah, focus groups. What can’t they tell you? In this case, the truth. This is the percent of independents who support Obama, courtesy of Gallup’s weekly data, with a smoothed trend line:
Quite a roller coaster ride, eh? Yes, ladies and gentlemen, watch in amazement as independents “sour” on Obama during the health care debate. The percent who approved of him at the beginning of September 2009 was 46%. During the week he signed the bill it was…45%!
And how about that oil spill? Since the oil spill, Obama’s approval among independents is down by a whopping 4 points. Sour, indeed!
Someone just shoot me now.
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These surveys are about Obama. Any data on congressional Dems?
Jay: I don’t have any data handy. The article actually never says much about the focus groups’ thoughts on Congressional Democrats, not that I would trust it. I am also skeptical that feelings about the congressional parties per se affect voting in midterm elections — especially when assessments of both parties are so low.
John: the trend line from pollster.com that uses more polls than just Gallup seems to tell a different story–one closer to the one Amy Walter is telling…
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama-inds.php
Possibly because Gallup is polling all adults? Interestingly, since Rasmussen is not included in this analysis (doesn’t publish results by PID?), we can’t blame him for the results either…
I wonder what the approve-disapprove figures really tell us. Are there any survey outfits that include strongly approve, approve, disapprove, and strongly disapprove options for survey respondents? I wonder if the approve-disapprove percentages hide a pattern in which independent disapprovers are more likely to be in the “strongly disapprove” category while independent approvers are in the “approve” category. This is part of the narrative found in at least some press reports about Obama’s overall approval levels.
There is a difference between eating and dining. — Doug Quarnstrom
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