The forecast is Alan Abramowitz’s, discussed here. A couple of tidbits:
Contrary to many other analyses, however, the results of the forecasting model indicate that the main factors contributing to likely Republican gains in November are structural and do not reflect an especially negative political environment for Democrats. The current political environment only appears unfavorable for Democrats compared with the extraordinarily favorable environment that the Party enjoyed in both 2006 and 2008…
…Even under what might be considered a best-case scenario for Democrats, if President Obama’s net approval rating were to improve from a +5 to a +20, and Democrats were to regain a 10 point lead on the generic ballot, Democrats would still be expected to lose about 20 seats in the House.
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As with the earlier prediction, I wonder if regional differences will undermine the accuracy of this analysis. The only poll I’m aware of that routinely breaks down the favorable ratings of the president by regions is Research 2000 poll sponsored by dailykos, which I wouldn’t want to rely on for obvious reasons. If Gallup’s presidential approval ratings and the generic ballot preferences show similar significant differences by region, and these differences are greater than they have been in recent elections, then relying on those numbers could overstate the number of seats the GOP could pick up in November.
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