I have a post up on me other blog mentioning this fun review essay by Philip Tetlock on punditry and prediction. Via a comment by Aaron Swartz to aforementioned post, the truly excellent Wrong Tomorrow. From the site’s FAQ
“But I say unto you, that every idle word that men shall speak,
they shall give account thereof in the day of judgment.”What does this site do?
It keeps track of predictions of the future by public figures.
How does it work?
When someone makes a prediction, people post it to the site along with a brief description and a URL. We monitor it and change its status to true or false when appropriate.
What are the submission criteria?
1. The prediction needs to make an empirically testable claim about the world.
2. The prediction should be significant.
3. The prediction must be by a public figure.
4. The prediction should be testable within five years.
5. Negative predictions (about things that are never expected to happen) are allowed.
One of those ideas that is blindingly obvious – as soon as someone else has done it. I earnestly hope that this site thrives and prospers.
{ 1 comment }
I predict that the site will disappear in six (6) years.
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