I have a commentary today over at The New Republic on the first anniversary of last year’s Russian-Georgian war. Here’s the first paragraph:
Friday marked the one-year anniversary of the beginning of the Russian-Georgian War. Last summer, battles were fought, lives were lost, and land was destroyed. Yet one year out, what is most striking is how little the politics related to the war seem to have changed and how many questions surrounding the conflict remain unanswered.
Click here to continue reading Guessing Game: What we still don’t know about the Russian-Georgian War
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The Russians seem to have gained two new places for military bases: one in South Ossetia, the other along the beautifully long Abkhazian coastline.
It’s intriguing to think of this sort of thing as winning and losing. However, I think much was learned on the Georgian side and gained on the Abkhazian/South Ossetian/Russian side.
The Georgians learned that the Russians would go to war for South Ossetia — this was not previously clear. They have also learned about the limitations of their armed forces and reserve system.
Wins for Abkhazia/South Ossetia: The Georgians living in South Ossetia were cleansed, creating a straightforward demographic condition for South Ossetia. The Abkhazians reclaimed the Kodori Gorge. The village buffer around South Ossetia has enlarged into other parts of Georgia.
My 2 cents (such as it matters): we’ll see little to no action on the Georgian side as long as their economy is in shambles and their military non-existent. It’s when state capacity increases that the pressure for territorial integration will come again in Georgian domestic circles. In surveys the first priority is always poverty/unemployment, the second territorial integrity. Without a push from inside, it’s hard to see the Georgians acting in a way that requires it burning so much political capital with its Western allies (and risking another Russian invasion that might be more successful).
The Russian pressures for action are of course a different story. It’s a much more complex country with a different array of domestic pressures. So the point on the oil market is well taken. I can’t imagine that the Russians really want to annex South Ossetia, although Abkhazia would be prize.
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