dynamic leader + catchy slogans + impressionable populace + herd mentality + bad economy + war = Obama as president.
That’s from one of the comments (by a commenter with the nom de blogue Piffle_dragon) on this post, which relayed Jennifer Hochschild’s question about what there is, if anything, in the massive literature on racial/ethnic relations that would have led one to anticipate a victory by an African-American candidate in a presidential election.
Piffle_dragon’s contention that Obama’s victory was the product of a perfect storm of factors—economy, war, catchy slogans, dyanmic leader, etc.—sounds about right to me. But let me take it a step farther, which, interestingly I think, will lead us right back to where we started.
Piffle_dragon’s formula—take another look at it, please—puts me in mind of a presidential election from my youth, and more specifically the 1952 presidential campaign. Check it out:
Dynamic leader—Eisenhower. Catchy slogan—I like Ike. Impressionable populace—check. Herd mentality—check. Bad economy—check. War—check. (To which I’ll add: unpopular incumbent—check.)
So: Two different elections, separated by 56 years, but remarkably similar in key respects. Piffle_dragon’s formula works not just once, but twice—once for Obama, once for Eisenhower.
Now chew on this. Perform a “Back to the Future” thought experiment in which you strap Barack Obama into a Delorean and transport him back to 1952. Leave the perfect storm—war, economy, all that stuff—in place. Now ask yourself whether Obama, pinch-hitting for Ike, wins the election. Well, of course he doesn’t.
So: same perfect storm, different result. Which leads us right back to Jennifer’s question, doesn’t it? The more things stay the same, the more they must have changed.
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There wouldn’t have been a half-African Supreme Commander of the Allied forces in WWII. If circumstances were such that there could have been such a person, such a person could have won.
Anon: Your first sentence amounts to a restatement of my point if read literally. Thanks.
Of course, if you’re not quite so much a literalist, my point would simply mean that an accomplshed African American with all the pluses that were on Eisenhower’s side of the table (war, bad economy, unpopular incumbent, etc.) wouldn’t have been electable in 1952.
Eisenhower couldn’t have gotten elected in 2008. Speaking out about the military-industrial complex clearly marks him as a deranged hippie.
Hi. How is “heard mentality” defined? Was there more of one in 2008 then recent elections? Or is it a way of saying that running a good campaign (and McCain a bad one) does not matter because a response by the public to it is just “heard mentality?”
Doug: “Herd mentality” isn’t my term, but I interpreted it to mean that the popular momentum swung toward a new, fresh face whose personal popularity was unusually widespread. Supporting that candidate became “the thing to do.” I don’t think that’s necessarily an alternative to what you call “running a good campaign” — indeed, it may be a consequence of running a good campaign, or at least a component of running a good campaign.
opps…herd..not heard…too many conference calls with lawyers today has sapped my brain…
“Herd mentality” could be taken as an insult, implying that voters do not think, but simply follow popular trends.
No doubt there is a herd factor, but if so, it is often below the surface and does not completely displace reason. I believe it was Harold Rosenberg who once referred to intellectuals as “that herd of independent minds.”
I’m not sure how you operationalize it, but it seems to me that the culture in 2008 vs. 1952 was far different in that the civil rights movement truly changed hearts and minds —so much so that there was an advantage to being African-American in 2008. It made many white voters feel self-satisfied and morally evolved to be able to cast a vote for an African-American, and top media figures certainly helped this along.
Advantage to being African-American? I’d need to see some evidence of that–Obama got about what the models for a generic Democrat would have gotten.
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