What is the probability your vote will make a difference?

by Andrew Gelman on October 27, 2008 · 2 comments

in Campaigns and elections

1 in 10 million in New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, and 1 in 60 million averaging over the whole country.

2 comments

{ 2 comments }

Ben C October 28, 2008 at 8:11 am

That is a better chance than I have winning the Power Ball, so I’m game!

LFC October 30, 2008 at 10:53 pm

Of course people are going to vote anyway. I seem vaguely to recall a famous ostensible paradox to which this phenomenon gave its name. :)

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