Do you find yourself pining for the days of checking 538, Votomatic, or Simon Jackman’s blog for the latest American election prediction? Well, I’ve got a temporary fix for you! University of East Anglia political scientist Chris Hanretty is blogging about the Italian elections and now has a poll-aggregation based forecast of the election results that includes the distribution of Senators at the regional level. Moreover, he also has a 57 page paper posted at SSRN detailing his methods, and has made both his data and code publicly available.
Here are his current predictions:
there is an extremely high probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the lower chamber (p ≈ 100%); the probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the Senate, however, is extremely low, at 4.5%.
The centre-left is very likely to lose in Lombardia and the Veneto. It has a two-in-five chance of winning in Sicily.
The radical left list, Rivoluzione Civile, is unlikely to win seats in the Senate (p = 20.7%). By contrast, the two extreme-right parties which form part of the centre-right coalition (Fratelli d’Italia and la Destra) seem to have a good chance of acquiring representation in the Senate (though not necessarily in the Camera).
A coalition between the PD and the list led by Mario Monti would be extremely likely to have a majority in the Senate (p = 94.2%). However, this depends on considerable cohesion within the Monti-led list. A coalition which drew only on ‘definite’ Montiani (i.e., not including those placed on the list by the UDC or FLI) would only have a 50:50 chance of a majority, even with support from minor parties on the centre-left.
Consequently, almost irrespective of the government that forms, fresh elections are likely to be held within the next two years.
[h/t to Megan Metters @PietraDialogues]