Quick Snapshot of Current Status of Italian Parliamentary Elections

by Joshua Tucker on February 25, 2013 · 3 comments

in Campaigns and elections,Comparative Politics,Election Reports

For those of you who missed Florida in 2000, tonight’s Italian parliamentary election results could have made a nice consolation prize. We had polls and exit polls predicting one thing (victory for the left!), post-election “projections” predicting another (victory for the right!), and then results that went in another direction (no one wins!).  While it will still be a while still before we know anything for certain, but here are the major take-aways from Italian elections so far (as of midnight CET):

  • Bad night for Monti

  • Good night for Grillo’s 5 Star Party

  • Berlusconi coalition probably wins the Senate, but without a majority

  • Bersani coalition probably (although still very close) wins the House of Deputies and will therefore have 54% of seats despite only wining something close to 30% of the vote

  • Grillo’s 5 Star party could form majority in Senate with either Bersani or Berlusconi  in Senate, but probably won’t.

  • This leaves a “Grand Coalition” of left and right as only other option for a government, but that probably won’t happen either

  • Therefore, Italy will probably be looking at a few months of an interim government followed by another election later this spring

  • Should have sold your Euros, Italian stocks, and Italian sovereign debt sometime around 3 PM CET today.

  • You will be hearing a lot about Florence mayor Matteo Renzi in the coming months.

For a more thorough and more elegant report, I recommend this post on the blog suffragio.  We’ll have our own post-election report(s) later this week.

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