Chris Hanretty Predicts the Outcome of the Italian Elections

by Joshua Tucker on February 18, 2013 · 2 comments

in Campaigns and elections,Comparative Politics

Do you find yourself pining for the days of checking 538, Votomatic, or Simon Jackman’s blog for the latest American election prediction? Well, I’ve got a temporary fix for you! University of East Anglia political scientist Chris Hanretty is blogging about the Italian elections and now has a poll-aggregation based forecast of the election results that includes the distribution of Senators at the regional level. Moreover, he also has a 57 page paper posted at SSRN detailing his methods, and has made both his data and code publicly available.

Here are his current predictions:

  • there is an extremely high probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the lower chamber (p ≈ 100%); the probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the Senate, however, is extremely low, at 4.5%.

  • The centre-left is very likely to lose in Lombardia and the Veneto. It has a two-in-five chance of winning in Sicily.

  • The radical left list, Rivoluzione Civile, is unlikely to win seats in the Senate (p = 20.7%). By contrast, the two extreme-right parties which form part of the centre-right coalition (Fratelli d’Italia and la Destra) seem to have a good chance of acquiring representation in the Senate (though not necessarily in the Camera).

  • A coalition between the PD and the list led by Mario Monti would be extremely likely to have a majority in the Senate (p = 94.2%). However, this depends on considerable cohesion within the Monti-led list. A coalition which drew only on ‘definite’ Montiani (i.e., not including those placed on the list by the UDC or FLI) would only have a 50:50 chance of a majority, even with support from minor parties on the centre-left.

  • Consequently, almost irrespective of the government that forms, fresh elections are likely to be held within the next two years.
  • [h/t to Megan Metters @PietraDialogues]

    { 2 comments }

    genauer February 19, 2013 at 8:57 am

    I ll guess the reason for no comments is, that the piece is real good and comprehensive.

    No reason to add anything, ….. beyond kudos.

    Raffaele Zenti February 21, 2013 at 8:08 am

    Good job indeed.
    As you know (http://tinyurl.com/aq54gwu), I got similar results.
    Anyway, collecting information in an informal way (I admit: I didn’t dare include that piece of information in a prior…), I suspect that M5S could obtain even better results, with respect to our forecasts. This could be disruptive, from the Eurozone perspective. We might see the BTP-Bund spread jumping…

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