Details on the 2012 House predictions

by Eric McGhee on November 28, 2012 · 4 comments

in Campaigns and elections

We created and refined a prediction model for House elections and recently evaluated the model’s performance against the actual results.  In the interest of evaluation and transparency, we have uploaded details and data as Google docs for anyone to access and download.  The model coefficients and prediction process can be found here.  A spreadsheet of predicted values and standard errors can be found here.

{ 4 comments }

W. M. November 29, 2012 at 6:58 am

I’m assuming that the predicted values are Democratic two-party share?

Pete Gallego (TX-23) outperformed your model by about 13%, which was almost double the standard error there.

W. M. November 29, 2012 at 7:01 am

In fact, looking over the results from races I’m not sure I see any other glaringly bad calls by the model. I think that speaks very highly to the campaign that was run by Gallego’s staff.

Eric McGhee November 29, 2012 at 1:52 pm

No doubt. Also speaks well of the model, n’est-ce pas?

W. M. November 29, 2012 at 3:02 pm

Yes, very.

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