Doug “bread and peace” Hibbs gives Obama 47.5% of the two-party vote

by Andrew Gelman on August 16, 2012 · 7 comments

in Campaigns and elections

Hibbs writes:

The article also includes some fun bashing of other people’s models. I love that sort of thing!

Hibbs concludes with a warning:

Unless I’m missing something, Hibbs’s model does not include an incumbency advantage (which would give Obama a boost because he is running for reelection); that could make the difference between his model and most others that call the election as being closer to 50/50.

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