* Latest election forecast by Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien shows a slight Obama lead for the first time.
* Alan Abramowitz revises his model, which shows a narrower Obama lead than before. Brendan Nyhan, Kevin Collins, Matt Dabrowski, and Drew Linzer discuss.
* Sean Trende on why Romney and Obama can’t move the polls.
And because I’m sorry for all the campaign-related links:
* Same-day delivery from Amazon?
* Using Jay-Z to teach constitutional law. Via @JoeUra.
* Reversing the Stanford Prison Experiment. Via @Prof_BearB.