Via “Kindred Winecoff”:http://ipeatunc.blogspot.com/2012/05/there-is-no-technocracy-partisan-bias.html, Chris Gandrud has come up with a “quite striking graph”:http://christophergandrud.blogspot.com/2012/02/update-to-partisan-bias-in-fed.html.
The partisan effect is less obvious than in the earlier graph, but is is clear that during this time period the big over estimations are during Democratic presidencies and the big (actually almost all) underestimations are during Republican ones. The effect would be even stronger if we took out the end of Reagan’s first term and his second one, where Fed staff may not have fully adjusted their forecasting to reflect the Volker-Greenspan era of moderate inflation.