The Real Lesson in Today’s Election Polls

Amidst all of today’s silly discussion of the presidential horserace—silly because of the limited predictive power of trial heat polls at this point—I haven’t really seen anyone draw attention to this:


I mean the party breakdown.  Remember when Obama was going to lose the support of all those Democrats dissatisfied with his weak-kneed compromises?  And remember how Romney was going to struggle to win over the base because, like, “Anybody but Romney” was 75% of the GOP?

Well, here it is only April, and the bases are basically unified.  In other words, the campaign, if not the last few years of politics, has already accomplished what is usually accomplished months from now.

Party identification: it matters.  A lot.

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