Graphiti: Social Media and the Iowa Caucus

by Jonathan Robinson on January 4, 2012

in Campaigns and elections,Data,Graphiti

The team at Oh My Gov made these predictions the day of the Iowa caucuses:

If Iowa Republican caucus-goers follow the trend shown in Facebook fans, then Romney will be the clear winner with Paul having a strong second place showing. Gingrich and Santorum will battle for third. This is consistent with recent Iowa polling data from Real Clear Politics.

Interestingly, a look at Twitter follower growth predicts Paul emerging as the winner, followed by Romney and Santorum.

Now, the day after the caucus and the Santorum Surge, they have a follow-up post:
Romney’s campaign made a targeted effort to attack Newt Gingrich in the final days leading up to the caucus, but had they taken a closer look at the former speaker’s social media following they might have realized that their attention was misplaced and resources could have been better used to target Santorum.

Today’s post also has a graph of the entire field’s social media trends and it matches the public opinion data quite well, suggesting that both Paul and Santorum have momentum going into New Hampshire.

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