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Yet More on the Shutdowns and Clinton Approval

- April 9, 2011

Chris Bowers “tweets”:http://twitter.com/#!/ThisBowers/status/56465787552141313 in response to “my post”:https://themonkeycage.org/2011/04/the_1995-96_shutdowns_and_appr.html:

bq. Clinton’s approval spiked to new high right after deal to end shutdown #2. How is that not a win?

Nate Silver also “posts”:http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/08/government-shutdowns-and-approval-ratings/ an analysis that points to a similar conclusion, although he attaches appropriate caveats.

Let me state the most important caveat, and state it more strongly:

The higher approval ratings for Clinton that occurred “right after” the second shutdown are measured with polls that were conducted approximately _6 weeks_ after the end of the shutdown. Let me show this again, but magnifying the graph to isolate the time period around the second shutdown:

clinton approval shutdown 2.png

Now the sequence of events is clearer:

1) The shutdown ended on January 6, 1996.

2) In the immediate aftermath of the shutdown, Clinton’s approval did not spike. It was approximately 48-49%, according to the smoothed trend line. That is, from the period from January 6 until the last January poll in my data — a CBS/NY Times poll conducted from January 18-20 — there is no rise in Clinton’s approval. I’ll say it again: for two weeks after the end of the shutdown, Clinton’s approval did not increase.

3) There is then a month-long period in which there were no public polls, at least as archived with Roper “here”:http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Clinton.

4) When public polling resumed on February 21, a spate of polls recording approval ratings that were about 3-4 point higher than a month prior (approximately 52%).

It is a leap to attribute the higher approval ratings as of February 21 to the shutdown. It requires explaining why approval did not increase for two weeks after the shutdown, but would have increased thereafter — and for no other reason than the shutdown. Essentially the shutdown had some sort of delayed effect — and a very small one at that — if this theory is correct. I don’t see why that would be.

The point of my posts on this subject stands: by the most fundamental measure of public opinion toward the president, Clinton did not clearly benefit from the government shutdowns. The historical conventional wisdom needs much more qualification, it not outright revision, on this point.

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