Seat Losses Everywhere

by John Sides on November 1, 2010 · 2 comments

in Campaigns and elections

houseseatloss.png

The above graph is courtesy of John Coleman. He writes via email:

In this graph you have, since 1950, the midterm seat change for the president’s party in the US house and the losses in the lower houses in the state. They track well, including the unusual years of 1998 and 2002. Perhaps most notable is that the tracking occurs both in lean and not so lean years for the president’s party, suggesting a reasonably well integrated party system in which voters hold a party accountable up and down the federal electoral ladder.

{ 2 comments }

Matt November 1, 2010 at 3:56 pm

Looks like state house losses anticipated US House losses in 40s and 50s before they started correlating – does that trend continue backwards into the early 40s? Any idea what could have prompted the two to merge?

Paul Kellstedt November 1, 2010 at 7:14 pm

These data are interesting, and speak to the notion that “all politics is local” — in the sense that all politics is not local. There are tides that unite state-legislative and US-House elections.

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