Dan Balz and Jon Cohen, summarizing the most recent Washington Post poll:
bq. Disaffection among independents with Obama’s policies has been one of the major shifts in public opinion over the past year, making this small movement one to monitor over the coming months.
I don’t know how they would define “major shifts” but given the small number of pure independents, most of the decline in Obama’s approval is due to trends among Republicans and, to a lesser extent, Democrats. I showed this earlier using the Washington Post’s own polls.
They also write:
bq. If the overall trends continue, the sour public mood could result in sizable House and Senate losses for Democrats in the midterm elections, particularly if the unemployment rate sticks near double digits.
Once again, economic growth, not unemployment, is what is most strongly associated with seat losses for the president’s party. Seth Masket’s graphs tell the story.
(NB: Jon Cohen is a friend.)