Home > News > Another Early Midterm Forecast: GOP to Gain 37 Seats
84 views 0 sec 0 Comment

Another Early Midterm Forecast: GOP to Gain 37 Seats

- February 25, 2010

The forecast is Alan Abramowitz’s, discussed here. A couple of tidbits:

bq. Contrary to many other analyses, however, the results of the forecasting model indicate that the main factors contributing to likely Republican gains in November are structural and do not reflect an especially negative political environment for Democrats. The current political environment only appears unfavorable for Democrats compared with the extraordinarily favorable environment that the Party enjoyed in both 2006 and 2008…

bq. …Even under what might be considered a best-case scenario for Democrats, if President Obama’s net approval rating were to improve from a +5 to a +20, and Democrats were to regain a 10 point lead on the generic ballot, Democrats would still be expected to lose about 20 seats in the House.