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The Racial Dimension of the MA Special Election

- January 25, 2010

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Charles Stewart of MIT crunches some data and reports:

bq. Statewide, the big Brown vote shift was concentrated in the Republican parts of the state. Within Boston, the shifts came in the Republican and white parts of the city.

See the above graph, which focuses on Boston, tabulates the Brown vote relative to the McCain vote in each precinct, and then plots that against the percent minority.

And then this on turnout:

bq. Statewide, the big turnout shift was concentrated in the Republican and wealthy parts of the state. Within Boston, turnout held firmest in the Republican and white parts of the city.

His analysis throws cold water on the “working class revolt” explanation of the MA election:

bq. The geographical pattern of the vote shifts, showing that the shifts occurred in the Boston suburbs and exurbs, argues against the notion that this was largely a matter of angry working-class Democrats abandoning their party. More likely, it was borderline independents punishing the incumbent party for poor economic performance, along with Republicans who had no interest in George W. Bush coming home to support a national Republican who could string sentences together to make paragraphs.

More is here (pdf).