Wanna make some easy money? Call your favorite bookie and get your money down — wager the mortgage if need be — on the outcome of this year’s Virginia gubernatorial race. It looks like a sure thing.
Maybe you’re hesitant to place a bet on this race because you don’t follow Virginia politics. Don’t worry. Here’s a little help to get you started.
Virginia’s governors are term-limited.One four-year term and they’re out the door. So you needn’t worry about the incumbency factor.
Virginia holds its gubernatorial elections in odd-numbered years (2009, 2005, 2001, …), presumably minimizing the effect of national-level trends. So don’t worry about coattails.
Virginia’s last two governors have been Democrats (Tim Kaine and Mark Warner).
This year’s candidates are Creigh Deeds (Democrat) and Bob McDonnell (Republican). McDonnell currently leads in the polls, but Deeds has gained ground.
Now, armed with all that information, are you ready to pick a winner?
Still not ready? Well, then, here’s one final piece of information, as provided by the dean of Virginia politics watchers, Larry Sabato.
According to Sabato, in the last eight gubernatorial elections, without a single exception, Virginians have elected the candidate of the party that does NOT occupy the White House.
I think eight out of eight should be good enough even for a cautious type like you. Let’s see now: Obama’s a Democrat, so Bob McDonnell, the Republican, will be the next governor of Virginia. You can count on it.
[Hat tip to Jim Todd]