The Partisan Filter, Once Again

by John Sides on April 23, 2009 · 8 comments

in Public opinion

globalwarming.png

[Source: Gallup, via NY Times Magazine]

{ 8 comments }

Ben Clark April 23, 2009 at 11:58 am

I would love to see this graph with a few more data points. We’ve gone through a whole heck of a lot between 98 and now. Not to mention a lot of people equate global climate change with Al Gore, who is a partisan figure.

John Sides April 23, 2009 at 12:01 pm

Ben: Click the link to the Gallup website and you’ll see all the intervening datapoints. I just made a quickie graph based on the two endpoints that were presented in the NY Times Magazine.

Joel April 23, 2009 at 12:27 pm

funny how the gap has grown as the issue salience has gone up. i’m sure there is plenty of political science on that, but as a theorist, it’s new to me.

i bet the chart on belief in evolution looks about the same. when i was a kid, it was ok to be a conservative christian and believe in evolution.

Brian Arbour April 23, 2009 at 1:17 pm

Kevin Drum is not taking this news very well. His reaction…

“Just kill me now.”

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2009/04/chart-day-4232009

Mark April 23, 2009 at 1:51 pm

Note that Fox News started in October 1996.

Bloix April 23, 2009 at 2:52 pm

How much of this results from the fact that there are fewer Republicans now? I don’t see a line for independents.

John Sides April 23, 2009 at 3:10 pm

Bloix: Click through to Gallup and you’ll see the line for independents. If I understand your point, you’re suggesting that the increase is explained by the modest decrease in the number of Republicans, which presumably means that Republicans today are a smaller, more homogeneously conservative bunch. In other words, the change over time is due to compositional changes among Republicans, rather than attitude change within Republicans — if that makes sense.

My guess is that the change over time is much more about attitude change than compositional change. I would hypothesize that Republicans are responding to the information flow from prominent Republicans and conservatives, many of whom have argued that the threat of global warming is overblown.

The line for independents suggest some movement in the same direction as Republicans, although not as much. My guess is that Gallup is not breaking out independents who “lean” toward one of the parties. If they did, I suspect that most of the recent movement among independents is driven by independents who lean toward the Republican Party.

dj spellchecka April 23, 2009 at 5:56 pm

“independents” lean in different directions in different regions of the country…in 08 they leaned right in the parts of the country obama lost and leaned left in the parts he won..[with a few exceptions]

i suspect that this “I suspect that most of the recent movement among independents is driven by independents who lean toward the Republican Party,” is right..

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