Me vs. Karl Rove

by John Sides on November 3, 2008 · 5 comments

in Campaigns and elections

Rove predicts that Obama will win 338 electoral votes (pdf).

I’ll say 378. That is all the solid or leaning Obama states at Pollster, plus IN, ND, MO, NC, and FL. Of those 5, Rove predicts that only FL goes to Obama. Currently, 538 tells me “346.5.” Sam Wang says 352. Electoral-vote.com says 353. See some other guesses in David’s post and the related comments.

So that puts me on the high end. All I’m doing is assuming that the Pollster.com state-by-state averages are calling the winner correctly. I’m giving a little nudge to Obama based on the “enthusiasm gap” and his field operation too—a nudge that I think will put NC and IN in his column, but not GA, AZ, MT, etc.

On the Senate: I’ll say the Democrats end up with 59 seats (including Sanders and Lieberman). That’s all the solid or leaning Democratic races according to Pollster, plus MN. I don’t see KY or GA —especially if GA’s 50-percent rule ends up necessitating a run-off.

On the House: 257 for the Democrats. I can’t pretend to know these races inside and out, so I’m allocating the toss-ups based on whoever is ahead on Pollster. There’s one exception: Mahoney appears to have a small lead in FL-15, based on the Pollster average, but I think the scandal will matter and the latest poll on Pollster suggests as much. So 12 of the toss-ups go to the Democrats.

Leave your final predictions in the comments if you’d like.

{ 5 comments }

GC November 4, 2008 at 10:49 am

Obama – 326 (Omaha congressional district moves him up from 325)

Senate – 59 (Person most fun to watch go down: Dole)

House: 263 (Person most fun to watch go down in flames: Musgrave)

Tom Holbrook November 4, 2008 at 10:58 am

Obama 349, McCain 189

My only concern at this point is that we have Missouri going Obama, and North Carolina going McCain. I think there’s a chance that they could go the other way, but that won’t change the count very much.

Josh Putnam November 4, 2008 at 1:03 pm

I don’t know. That Rove map looks pretty good. But with a graduated weighted average of all the polls since Super Tuesday, I’ve been at 338-200 for a few weeks now.

I’ll have one more update to include the Zogby polls out this morning, but those likely won’t change anything. Florida, Missouri and North Carolina are the most competitive states as of now and are thus most likely to switch sides.

Jonathan Bernstein November 4, 2008 at 1:19 pm

Using pollster averages for presidential predictions make sense, but the House numbers there aren’t as usable that way…not enough polls, and incumbents “winning” but well under 50% are extremely vulnerable. I’m guessing +28 net for the Dems. Also, I’m guessing that 3-5 (maybe as many as 7) incumbents Dems go down; if the Dems do better than +28, I’m guessing that it’ll be because of more GOP incumbents losing, not because of zero losses the other way (like in ’94).

Paul Brewer November 4, 2008 at 3:05 pm

I made my map and then saw that Rove had the same map as me. I’m not sure how I feel about that.

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