Me vs. Karl Rove

by John Sides on November 3, 2008 · 5 comments

in Campaigns and elections

Rove predicts that Obama will win 338 electoral votes (pdf).

I’ll say 378. That is all the solid or leaning Obama states at Pollster, plus IN, ND, MO, NC, and FL. Of those 5, Rove predicts that only FL goes to Obama. Currently, 538 tells me “346.5.” Sam Wang says 352. Electoral-vote.com says 353. See some other guesses in David’s post and the related comments.

So that puts me on the high end. All I’m doing is assuming that the Pollster.com state-by-state averages are calling the winner correctly. I’m giving a little nudge to Obama based on the “enthusiasm gap” and his field operation too—a nudge that I think will put NC and IN in his column, but not GA, AZ, MT, etc.

On the Senate: I’ll say the Democrats end up with 59 seats (including Sanders and Lieberman). That’s all the solid or leaning Democratic races according to Pollster, plus MN. I don’t see KY or GA —especially if GA’s 50-percent rule ends up necessitating a run-off.

On the House: 257 for the Democrats. I can’t pretend to know these races inside and out, so I’m allocating the toss-ups based on whoever is ahead on Pollster. There’s one exception: Mahoney appears to have a small lead in FL-15, based on the Pollster average, but I think the scandal will matter and the latest poll on Pollster suggests as much. So 12 of the toss-ups go to the Democrats.

Leave your final predictions in the comments if you’d like.

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