What’s Going on in Ukraine?

John McCain has warned us to “watch Ukraine.” What does he mean? Joshua Tucker, a political scientist at NYU, has a piece in The New Republic that provides some insight. He sums up:

The bottom line is that, while we certainly cannot rule out any future actions on the part of the Russian armed forces, by far the most likely outlet for this use of force was in Georgia—and this has already occurred. While our government should of course be preparing contingency plans in case any such conflict might break out, it remains highly unlikely in the near to medium future. This is not any way to suggest that Russia is not currently trying—and will not in the future try—to meddle in the domestic politics of Ukraine in an effort to influence developments there in its favor. But at a time when the United States has many pressing foreign policy concerns—including the global economic crisis, the war in Iraq, and the ongoing struggle with Al Qaeda—preparing for a Russian invasion of Ukraine is probably not one that most voters should feel compelled at the moment to “watch.”

Find the piece here.

One Response to What’s Going on in Ukraine?

  1. Vitaliy October 17, 2008 at 2:34 pm #

    I have to agree with Tucker’s analysis. The probability of war with Ukraine is, under present circumstances, low. The probability of Russian interference in the Ukrainian domestic politics is as always high (can I say certain?). And, the U.S./NATO drawing contingency plans for Ukraine is unlikely in the short- to medium-term. On the other hand, the Georgian-Russian war has prompted NATO commanders to request a permission of developing such plans for the Baltic states.